BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

What they do

BigBear.ai provides AI-powered decision intelligence, including generative AI, predictive analytics, computer vision, and biometrics, primarily to U.S. government and select commercial customers. Core industries are national security, travel, and trade. The company combines software and services, with a majority of employees security-cleared, and operates in highly regulated, mission-critical environments.

Revenue drivers

• National Security (Defense & Intelligence) — Largest segment; revenue from U.S. government contracts for AI and analytics, including the Ask Sage generative AI platform acquired in December 2025 for $272.1 million.
• Supply Chain & Commerce — Revenue from commercial and government customers for supply chain transparency and optimization, including the CargoSeer acquisition (Jan 2026) for $5.0 million aiding customs and border operations.
• Digital Identity & Biometrics — Revenue from identity verification and biometric solutions used in travel and border security, leveraging the company's predictive analytics capabilities.

Recent performance

Q2 2026 revenue was $36.7 million, up 13% year-over-year, driven by Ask Sage's GenAI platforms. Gross margin expanded to 32.8% from 25.0% year-over-year. Net loss improved to $25.7 million from $228.6 million in Q2 2025, largely due to decreased non-cash derivative losses and goodwill impairment. Backlog rose 9% to $269.6 million between December 31, 2025 and June 30, 2026. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, revenue totaled $71.1 million.

Strategy

Management is focused on accelerating growth through M&A, leveraging its $409.8 million cash and investments position for 'accretive, catalytic' deals. The company is integrating Ask Sage and CargoSeer to expand its AI platforms and decision-support offerings. It is investing in sales and marketing, partnerships, and its 'growth team' to drive new contract wins, with 20+ new contracts in Q2 2026. Management emphasizes execution discipline and margin expansion, aiming for stronger topline growth in 2027.

Risks

• Government dependence — A majority of revenue comes from U.S. federal contracts, which are subject to budget cuts, shutdowns, and contract termination for convenience.
• Integration risk — The large Ask Sage acquisition ($272.1 million) may not be integrated successfully or achieve expected synergies, and the company recorded significant goodwill impairment in 2025.
• History of losses — The company has reported net losses every year from 2021 to 2025 and negative operating cash flow throughout that period, including a $42.0 million negative OCF in 2025.
• Competition and rapid tech change — The AI market for defense is intensely competitive, and failure to keep pace with technological advancements could erode demand for BigBear.ai's offerings.

Outlook

Management affirms full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million, targeting 17% revenue growth. They plan to accelerate in the second half of 2026 and position for M&A. The company cites a favorable macro environment with increased defense tech investment and the U.S. government's AI Acceleration Strategy as tailwinds.