Moderna, Inc.

What they do

Moderna develops and commercializes vaccines and therapeutics built on its mRNA platform, which instructs cells to produce specific proteins. It sells three approved products: the COVID-19 vaccines Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, and the RSV vaccine mRESVIA. mNEXSPIKE, launched commercially in the third quarter of 2025, is now the company's leading product in the U.S. retail channel. Beyond commercial products, it is advancing candidates in oncology (intismeran autogene with Merck), rare disease (mRNA-3927, mRNA-3705) and infectious disease (mRNA-1083, mRNA-1010, mRNA-1403).

Revenue drivers

• COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE) — The largest revenue source; 2025 total revenue of $1.9 billion came largely from COVID vaccine sales, though quarterly product sales have fallen sharply, with net product sales of $94 million in Q2 2026.
• mRESVIA (RSV vaccine) — Third commercial product; the company cited RSV market challenges tied to advisory committee recommendations that were more limited than anticipated, and in Q2 2026 signed an EU joint procurement contract for up to 24 million doses.
• Other revenue (collaboration and stand-ready manufacturing) — Includes government supply agreements and collaboration revenue; rose to $51 million in Q2 2026 from $28 million a year earlier and $88 million for the first half of 2026.

Recent performance

Second quarter 2026 total revenue was $145 million, compared with $142 million in the second quarter of 2025. Net product sales fell to $94 million from $114 million, while other revenue rose to $51 million from $28 million. The net loss was $782 million, or $(1.97) per share, versus $(825) million, or $(2.13) per share, a year earlier. First-half 2026 revenue was $534 million against $250 million in the first half of 2025, but cost of sales rose to $1,048 million from $209 million, reflecting inventory write-downs and unutilized manufacturing capacity costs. Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $6.9 billion at June 30, 2026, down from $7.5 billion at March 31, 2026.

Strategy

Management is pursuing a multi-year revenue growth strategy built on new product launches and partnerships, including a Brazil supply collaboration for COVID vaccines and an EU joint procurement contract for up to 24 million doses of mRESVIA. It is prioritizing late-stage pipeline programs, with pivotal readouts anticipated for intismeran autogene in melanoma and the propionic acidemia program. The company has streamlined its manufacturing footprint and added Moderna-built and managed facilities in the UK, Canada and Australia, plus a Marlborough, Massachusetts site purpose-built for intismeran that began clinical batch supply in September 2025. It is also cutting costs and targeting up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.

Risks

• Declining COVID vaccine demand — The company states that if demand for COVID vaccines continues to decline, it loses significant market share, or faces competitive pricing pressure, product sales may not materialize consistent with projections.
• Regulatory and public health uncertainty — Changes in FDA policies, post-marketing safety monitoring and ACIP recommendations on eligibility and target populations have affected and may continue to affect demand for Moderna's vaccines and increase its costs.
• RSV market challenges — Moderna has experienced challenges in the RSV market, in part due to advisory committee recommendations that were more limited than anticipated.
• Pipeline setbacks — The norovirus vaccine candidate mRNA-1403 did not meet statistical criteria for early success at the Phase 3 interim analysis, and the company is preparing to enroll an additional cohort.

Outlook

Moderna reiterates its plan to deliver up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 from 2025 revenue, split approximately 50% U.S. and 50% international. It improved its 2026 GAAP operating expense outlook by approximately $0.2 billion from the previous estimate and raised its expected 2026 year-end cash balance to $4.7–5.2 billion. The company anticipates potential approval of mFLUSIVA, its seasonal influenza vaccine candidate, with a PDUFA goal date of August 5, 2026, following a unanimous VRBPAC recommendation.